Before Outbreak, a Cascade of Warnings Went Unheeded - Bio-Defense Network
Mar 2020

Before Outbreak, a Cascade of Warnings Went Unheeded

New York Times reporters David E. Sanger, Eric Lipton, Eileen Sullivan and Michael Crowley authored a superb story that outlines that government exercises, including one last year, made clear that the U.S. was not ready for a pandemic like the coronavirus. But little was done.

In a scenario code-named “Crimson Contagion,” a series of exercises that ran from January to August of last year imagined an outbreak of the respiratory virus began in China and was quickly spread around the world by air travelers, who ran high fevers. In the United States, it was first detected in Chicago, and 47 days later, the World Health Organization declared a pandemic. By then it was too late: 110 million Americans were expected to become ill, leading to 7.7 million hospitalized and 586,000 dead.

The simulation’s sobering results — contained in a draft report dated October 2019 that has not previously been reported — drove home just how underfunded, underprepared and uncoordinated the federal government would be for a life-or-death battle with a virus for which no treatment existed.

The draft report, marked “not to be disclosed,” laid out in stark detail repeated cases of “confusion” in the exercise. Federal agencies jockeyed over who was in charge. State officials and hospitals struggled to figure out what kind of equipment was stockpiled or available. Cities and states went their own ways on school closings.

Many of the potentially deadly consequences of a failure to address the shortcomings are now playing out in all-too-real fashion across the country. And it was hardly the first warning for the nation’s leaders.

Three times over the past four years the U.S. government, across two administrations, had grappled in depth with what a pandemic would look like, identifying likely shortcomings and in some cases recommending specific action.

Read the whole sobering story here: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/19/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-outbreak.html

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.